The recently released 2024-25 Australian defence budget has sparked intense debate among defence analysts and strategists. With a total allocation of $55.7 billion, it is indeed a substantial investment in the country’s defence capabilities. However, a closer examination of the budget reveals several concerns that warrant attention.

Lack of New Funding

Despite the government’s acknowledgement of the deteriorating strategic circumstances in the region, the budget fails to provide any significant new funding for the next three years. This lack of investment raises questions about the government’s commitment to modernising and strengthening the Australian Defence Force (ADF) in the face of emerging threats.

Prioritising Maritime Capabilities

The budget allocates a substantial $50.3 billion over the next decade, but a closer look reveals that this funding is largely consumed by two major projects: the acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines (SSNs) and general-purpose frigates. This prioritisation of maritime capabilities raises concerns about the ADF’s overall force structure and balance. The Navy’s acquisition budget, including SSNs, is set to exceed that of the Army and Air Force over the next four years, potentially creating an imbalance in the ADF’s capabilities.

SSN Expenditure: A Growing Concern

The expenditure on SSNs is a significant aspect of the budget, with a total allocation of $13.5 billion over the forward estimates. This amount is expected to increase sharply in the coming years, raising concerns about the sustainability of this investment. The high cost of acquiring and maintaining SSNs may divert resources away from other critical defence capabilities, potentially compromising the ADF’s overall effectiveness.

Unrealistic Acquisition Spending Plans

History suggests that Defence’s acquisition spending plans are often overly ambitious and unrealistic. The budget’s reliance on these plans raises concerns about the ADF’s ability to deliver on its promised capabilities within the allocated timeframe and budget.

Sustainment and Workforce Spend: A Growing Burden

Defence’s sustainment and workforce spend has consistently exceeded predictions in the past. This trend is likely to continue, eating into the acquisition spending and further compromising the ADF’s ability to modernise and strengthen its capabilities.

In conclusion, while the 2024-25 Australian defence budget is substantial, it raises several critical questions about the government’s defence priorities and the ADF’s ability to deliver on its capabilities. The lack of new funding, prioritisation of maritime capabilities, and unrealistic acquisition spending plans are all concerns that require careful consideration and scrutiny. As the ADF navigates the complex and evolving strategic landscape, it is essential to ensure that the defence budget is allocated efficiently and effectively to meet the country’s defence needs.

References:
https://strategicanalysis.org/the-2024-25-defence-budget-one-project-to-rule-them/